Thursday, January 31, 2008

Day Trading Systems - The ONE Criteria To Judge Them On

When buying a day trading system or any other system for that matter, you should use one criteria to judge them yet most traders who buy trading systems don't even consider it and lose!
Here it is, use it and you will not only save money but give you the possibility of making money.

It's a real time track record from the vendor.
Think about it!
They try and sell you systems and make great promises, so they should be able to back them up with the money they have made trading the system.
Why would you even consider trading a system if the vendor doesn't have the confidence to?

Don't be fooled by the usual trick system sellers use which is:

Testimonials
Normally friends, a trader with a lucky trade ( before he gets wiped ) or simply made up.
The hypothetical track record

These amuse me no end. Let's define exactly what they are and why there total waste of time:

A track record that by its definition is made in hindsight knowing the closing prices.
Well that's really hard to do.
If you know where prices have closed its not hard to make a profit lets put it this way you never see one that losses!
So do you ever see real time track records from day trading systems?
No chance!

Day trading is a good story, but simply does not work - the logic is totally flawed.
Volatility is random in short time frames this is obvious to anyone apart from day traders.
You simply can't trade with the odds in your favor, if volatility is random.
You can use any technical tools you like but as the data is meaningless you may as well flip a coin.

Of course day traders will argue but my response is always:
Let's see your real time track record.
That's real dollars, made in the market over the long term say, 1 or 2 years and guess what?

When I ask a day trading vendor this question, I Never here from them again.
If you find a day trading system with a real time record let me know, as I haven't found one in 23 years.

It's amazing that people who buy systems never ask for a track record and accept meaningless simulations.
Don't make the mistake look for the evidence of profit in hard dollars over the longer term.
Always look for a real time track record with any system you buy and ask the vendor trades if he trades it himself.