Monday, April 28, 2008

The Ins and Outs of Performance Reports

Every trader should test the trading strategy that they're using. And, while testing your trading strategy, you should keep detailed records of the wins and losses in order to produce a performance report. Many software packages can help you with that, but a simple excel sheet will do the trick just as well.

Below are three things crucial to every performance report.

Net Profit

The first figure to take note of is the total, or net, profit. Obviously you want your system to generate profits, but don't be frustrated when, during the development stage, your trading system shows a loss; try to reverse your entry signals.

You might have heard that trading is a zero sum game. If you want to buy something (e.g. a certain stock or futures contract), then somebody else needs to sell it to you. And, you can only sell a position if somebody else is willing to buy from you at the price you're asking.

This means that if you lose money on a trade, then the person who took the other side of the trade is MAKING money. And vice versa: if you're making money on a trade, then the other trader is losing money. In the markets, money is not "generated." It just changes hands.

So, if you're going long at a certain price level, and you lose, then try to go short instead. Many times this is the easiest way to turn a losing system into a winning one.

Average Profit Per Trade

The next figure to look out for is the average profit per trade. Make sure this number is greater than slippage and commissions, and that it makes your trading worthwhile. Trading is all about risk and reward, and you want to make sure you get a decent reward for your risk.

Winning Percentage

Many profitable trading systems achieve a nice net profit with a rather small winning percentage, sometimes even below 30%. These systems follow the principle: "Cut your losses short and let your profits run." However, YOU need to decide whether you can stand 7 losers and only 3 winners in 10 trades. If you want to be "right" most of the time, then you should pick a system with a high winning percentage.

Conclusion

The above examples provide you with some guidelines, but it's up to you to decide whether the numbers in the strategy's performance report work for you or don't.

Ultimately, YOU'RE the one trading the strategy, and YOU'RE the one who has to feel comfortable with the expected results of your strategy.

Markus Heitkoetter is the CEO of Rockwell Trading, Inc. and the author of "The Complete Guide to Day Trading." Loaded with easy-to-use information, proven and reliable trading strategies, and clear-cut guidelines to success, the result of this book is a practical hands-on approach to day trading. Check it out at http://www.thecompleteguidetodaytrading.com

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